Come Bet Strategy
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So, you’re looking to get better at betting on the ponies? Or, maybe there’s a big race coming up that you want to figure out how to make an intelligent bet on rather than just slamming down money wildly like a confused degenerate? Wherever you fall within these categories (or in your own special category we didn’t mention), we’ve got just what you’re looking for.
*Come Bet Strategy Craps
*Converted Come Bet Strategy
Bet $15 on the Don’t Come. Bet $1 on the 11 and $1 on the 12. If the 2,3,or 12 hit next bet is same bet. Keep making $15 Don’t Come bets with the $1 11 and $1 12 hedge. If an existing Don’t Come bet is taken off then increase the Don’t Come bet size by $5. Increase for every lost Don’t Come bet. Your goal is to have 1 Don’t Pass bet with 3,4. Once a point is established, players will have access to this bet and can place chips on the don’t come bar on the table layout. The rules are exactly the same as the don’t pass line. The player wins if the shooter throws a 2, 3 or 12 and losses when the dice lands on 7 or 11.
In the coming sections, our team of experts is going to share their favorite and most effective horse racing strategy tips. These are not the worthless tips you’d get from the sketchy guy who spends 24 hours a day at the horse track who clearly hasn’t picked a winner in years. No, these are from the industry insiders who know what they’re doing.
These tips can save your life! Okay, we’re exaggerating; they probably aren’t going to save your life. But, they can save your bankroll’s life and put you on a track towards being a big-time horse racing betting winner. Who isn’t excited to secure a stable profit? Yes, that’s a horse pun. You are welcome.
In all seriousness, though, let’s get to the tips. Everyone has to learn to be a successful horse bettor; no one is barn with it. Okay, we’ll stop. Let’s get onto the tips!
We have taken the time to find you the very best for real money play. Play mobile online poker apps anywhere and at any timer. PurePlay Poker offers games that are compatible with all types of mobile. Mobile poker sites for us players.Don’t Get Hung Up on Tips at the Track
Before we go any further, we need to clear something up. In the horse racing world, you are going to run into a lot of people (especially at the track) who claim to be experts betting on the horses. They’ll claim to have insider tips or knowledge of a completely sure thing. Here’s the spoiler. There is absolutely no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing unless someone is cheating.
This means that fella at the track is probably just a degenerate gambler blowing smoke up your tailpipe. If they were really geniuses and had the ability to pick “sure things,” do you think they would be hanging out at the track all day with the common folk? Probably not! They’d probably have paid servants betting for them while they sat in an air conditioned owner’s box sipping on mint juleps. They wouldn’t be drinking a bud light with the same clothes on from yesterday and a weird aroma cloud following them around.
We’re not trying to be mean to the people at the track that love to bet on horses. What we’re saying, though, is when they tell you about a sure thing, they are doing you a disservice. You can’t get hung up on these tips even if they happen to pick a winner once in a while. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. It’s fine to listen to their tips, but don’t get so hung up on them that you get away from the strategies we’re going to give you in the coming sections. Fact and statistics will always win out against gut feeling in the long run. If you don’t believe us, you’ll eventually learn that lesson the hard way. Jockey Experience is Important
Horse racing is way different than betting on dogs for really one main reason. There is a person on top of the horse directing it around the track. For some reason, a lot of novice horse racing bettors like to put all their weight into researching the horse and forget that the jockey in the driver’s seat is extremely important.
There are a few things that you want to look for when you’re researching a jockey. First, you want to look at their history. Are they a winning jockey? Have they been winning recently? Are they staying in shape (some added weight from a lack of discipline will make a difference)? Have they been active lately or are they coming off a break?
Second, you want to look at their specific experience with the actual horse they are on and the track they are racing. Have you ever driven a new car or someone else’s car for the first time? It probably took you a little while to get used to everything even though it’s still just driving a car. This is the same with jockeys and horses. If the jockey has never ridden that particular horse in race conditions, there might be some issues with the two synching up together. While you shouldn’t preclude a horse just because it’s their first race with a new jockey, you should take it into account.
The jockey’s experience on a track is probably the most important part of this equation. Yes, all tracks are ovals and have dirt on them. But, as will talk about more later, they are not the same. An experienced jockey who has run at a particular track a lot is going to know the ins and outs of the track. They’re going to know the good sections of track, the sections to avoid, and they’re going to know when and where to push the horses to get maximum effort.
So, what’s the bottom line? Make sure you research the jockeys. Look at their personal record and then their record and experience with the horse they are on and the track they are racing at. Create a Mathematical Equation
We’re about to take you on a trip down math lane, so if you are someone who doesn’t like math, you can go ahead and skip to the next section. But, if you’re curious how the stats nerds that are crushing horse racing betting are doing it, grab a seat because we’re going to get into it.
Did you know that the odds the racebook put out on each horse not only tell you how much you stand to win, but they also tell you the percentage chance they think each horse has to win the race? Let’s say that you see a horse is 7/2 to win a race. This not only tells you that you will get $7 for every $2 you bet, but it also tells you that the racebook thinks the horse is 22.22% to win the race.
Understanding this is important to understand where we are going in this section. How do we find out the percentage chance the racebook thinks each horse will win? And, why is this important and how do we use it? Well, let’s answer these questions one at a time.
First, the way you convert this is by using an implied probability calculator. You put the odds in, click calculate, and the calculator will spit out the implied probability. This is a fancy phrase for the percentage chance the book thinks the horse will win. Basically, 7/2 “implies” that the “probability” of the horse winning is 22.22%.
Pretty neat, yea? Well, now let’s talk about why this is important to us. You have to remember that racebooks pay you out based on the likelihood of your bet winning. If a horse is more likely to win a race (the favorite), you’re not going to get paid out as much because that’s pretty likely to happen more often. If the horse is less likely to win a race (an underdog), you’re going to get paid out better because this should happen less likely. Basically, you’re getting paid a premium on your money for picking a horse that is less likely to win.
How do the racebooks know the percentage chance or likelihood of a horse winning a race? They don’t. They have to make an educated guess which is why it’s not called the probability but just the implied probability. When they set their lines, they are making a guess on the likelihood of each horse winning. Are they always right? Not a chance. When you can find situations where they are wrong and therefore paying out incorrectly, you’ve found value and potentially a great horse to bet on.
You’re looking for a horse that you think is MORE likely to win the race than the racebook thinks they are. When you find this, it means you will be winning your bet more often, but you’ll still be getting paid that premium because the racebook incorrectly thought they were going to win less often.
Let’s look at an example to drive this point home and then we’ll talk about how you can exploit it to make money at the track.
Let’s say that the horse Lucky Lucy is 4/1 to win on an upcoming race. You put this into your implied probability calculator, and you see that this means Lucky Lucy is going to win the race 20% of the time (1 out of 5 races). You also know that 4/1 pays out on a $10 bet, $40 in profit. So, let’s see what happens if you were able to bet this race 10 times and the racebook was right. They said that Lucky Lucy would win 20% of the time, so let’s see what happens to your profit if the horse wins 2 out of the 10 races (20%).Race #Horse BetAmount BetOddsOutcomeProfit/Loss1Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$402Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)3Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)4Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)5Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)6Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$407Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)8Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)9Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)10Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)
In this example, the racebook was right on the money as Lucky Lucy won 20% of the races. Let’s add up your profit. The total profit comes out to $0. You didn’t win any money or lose any money.
But, what happens if the racebook is wrong? Remember that earlier we said we were looking for opportunities where we thought a horse was going to win more often than the racebook did. That way we could win our bet more often, but still, collect that premium. Let’s say that you actually think Lucky Lucy is 30% likely to win the race. You think that out of 10 races, she’s going to win 3 races. But, the racebook still thinks it’s 20% so that is the rate you will be getting paid out. Here’s what that will look like. Race #Horse BetAmount BetOddsOutcomeProfit/Loss1Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$402Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)3Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)4Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)5Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$406Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$407Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)8Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)9Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)10Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)
Now let’s add up your profit. You’ve now made $50 because you found a mistake in the line being offered by the racebook. This is the key to winning at horse racing betting.Yes, you won’t be able to bet the exact same race over and over again. But, if you are constantly placing bets where the racebook has the odds wrong, you will turn a profit in the long run. This is not only the key to winning at betting on horses, but it’s the key to winning at betting on any sport. This is called finding value. If you can master spotting and exploiting these opportunities, you are going to be a very wealthy man or woman.
Alright, so you understand what you’re looking for when picking out a horse to bet. But, where do we get these percentages from? Well, let’s look at what we need first. We need to know the implied probability from the racebook, and we need to know the percentage chance we think the horse is going to win. The implied probability comes from converting the odds they put out. We’ve got that down with our implied probability calculator.
As per the percentage chance, we think the horse is going to win? Well, there are two ways to go about this. The first is by straight eye-balling it. You have to predict the percentage chance you think the horse is going to win the race. While this might be tough if you look at the race as a single race, it might be easier if you look at it as 100 different races.
Ask yourself, if this race was run 100 times, how many times would this horse win? Whatever number you come up with is the percentage chance you think the horse will win. Think Lucky Lucy will win 30 times out of 100 races? That’s 30%. Think Lucky Lucy will win 25 times? That’s 25%.
But, what if you want to take a more refined approach to the problem? Well, you can do this too by creating a formula. We’re going to look at a very simplified example to show you what we mean. You can take this simplified example and use it to build your own formula. If you can develop a winning formula, you can just print money on races.
Let’s say there is an upcoming horse race with only five horses in it (to keep things simpler). These are the five horses:
*Lucky Lucy
*Barrelin’ Bobby
*Too Good to Lose
*Shoot Where’s My Ladder?
*Commas, Are, Life,
The first thing you need to do is figure out the criteria that you think is important to research when determining the likelihood of a horse winning a race. You can have as many or as few criteria as you want. It will be up to you to build your winning formula. We can tell you that typically these formulas have a lot of different variables involved and not just a few. But, for today, we’re going to pretend that you decide there are only three criteria you think are important:
*The jockey experience level = Jockey
*The horse’s sprint speed = Speed
*The horse’s age (you think younger is better) = Age
The next thing you need to do is assign a point value for each horse in each category. Typically, we like to do this on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best), but you can do this on a scale of 1-100 if you want. It’s completely up to you. HorseJockeySpeedAgeLucky Lucy859Barrelin’ Bobby375Too Good to Lose562Shoot Where’s My Ladder?749Commas, Are, Life,828
Just to make sure you see what we’re doing here, let’s look at a couple of the horses. You’re saying here that Lucky Lucy has a very experienced jockey, middle of the pack speed, and a big advantage because the horse is young. You’re saying that Barrelin’ Bobby has a weak jockey, pretty good speed, and is in the middle of the pack regarding age.
The next thing you need to do is assign how important you think each criterion is. The best way to do this is to split all the characteristics up out of 100%. For example, let’s say that you think speed is the most important factor, jockey is the second most important, and then age is just a small factor. Out of 100, you might say that speed is 50% of the equation, jockey is 40% of the equation, and the horse’s age is only 10% of the equation.
You then take those numbers, and you build an equation to calculate your value on each horse.
*Value = (50% * Speed) + (40% * Jockey) + (10% * Age)
What we do now is we plug in each horse’s numbers into the equation. Remember, you’ll want to multiply everything within the parenthesis first and then add them together. Also, you can convert percentages to decimals by moving the decimal two places to the left. So, 50% is actually the same as .5. 40% is the same as .4, and 10% is the same as .1.
*Lucky Lucy = (50% * 5) + (40% * 8) + (10% * 9)
*Lucky Lucy = (0.5* 5) + (0.4 * 8) + (0.1 * 9)
*Lucky Lucy = (2.5) + (3.2) + (0.9)
*Lucky Lucy = 6.6
Do this for all of the horses, and you get the following numbers: Play keno online australia.
*Lucky Lucy = 6.6
*Barrelin’ Bobby = 5.2
*Too Good to Lose = 5.2
*Shoot Where’s My Ladder? = 5.7
*Commas, Are, Life, = 5
Now, you need to do one last step to convert these into percentages. You have to divide each number by the total value points that you awarded. So, we start by adding up all the points like this.
*6.6 + 5.2 + 5.2 + 5.7 + 5 = 27.7
Then you divide each of the value numbers by this total number and multiply it by 100. This will give you the percentage chance your formula thinks each horse will win the race. For Lucky Lucy, we would take 6.6/27.7 which gives us. 0.2382. We multiply that by 100, and we get 23.82%. We think that Lucky Lucy has a 23.82% chance of winning the race. When we do this with every horse, here is what we get.
*Lucky Lucy = 23.82%
*Barrelin’ Bobby = 18.77%
*Too Good to Lose = 18.77%
*Shoot Where’s My Ladder? = 20.57%
*Commas, Are, Life, = 18.05%
Notice, if you add up all of these percentages it comes out to 100%. (If it’s off by a few hundredths, it’s because we rounded our numbers down to two decimal points).
So, now you have everything you need to look for value. Take the percentages you think the horse has to win and compare them with the implied probabilities you got from the racebook. If your percentage is higher than the racebooks, then you’ve most likely found a good bet assuming you are correct. The more bets that you make where you are correct, the more money you are going to make in the long run.
Now, in the real world, your formula is not going to only have a couple of criteria. Most likely, you’ll have 10+ different things that you’re giving an assigned value to. Everything still works the same, though. Is your first formula going to be a winner? Probably not. Unless you’re some wizard, you are probably going to have to continually update and change your formula. You may even want to try out multiple formulas at once to see which one is a winner. You don’t necessarily have to bet to test your formula, though. If you have access to historical data, you can always test your formula over past races.
Keep adding and taking out different criteria, and keep tweaking the importance level you place on each. Also, keep tweaking how you go about assigning value for each horse. It’s a lot of moving parts, but if you can come up with a winning formula, you’ll literally be able to print money at every race track on the planet. This is the golden ticket that every horse racing bettor chases. Check the Horse’s History
We feel like we should take a couple of deep breaths coming off of that math intensive section. Inhale…exhale. Alright, now we want to start talking about some other tips and strategies that you can use to pick winners. If you aren’t feeling the math stuff, these next tips are going to help you out a lot. If you are feeling the math stuff, you can use these tips to help you decide on your criteria and how you assign your values. Basically, the rest of this guide is going to be awesome for everyone.
What we want to talk about now is checking the horse’s history. You need to do research on the actual horse you are betting on. What exactly are you looking for? Well, there’s a lot you can look at. The first and most obvious is the horse’s experience and record. Have they raced at this track before? Have they won here before? How have they done in their past few races?
Then, you’ll want to look at the condition of the horse. Have they been overworked lately or given adequate rest? Have they raced recently or has it been a little long since they were on the track racing competitively? Has the horse ever been injured? Is the horse healthy?You want to look at the horse’s style. No, we aren’t talking about what sort of fall fashions they life to wear. We mean what kind of a runner are they. Do they like to sprint off the line and tend to fall off late? Do they wait until the end to hit their full stride? Are they
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So, you’re looking to get better at betting on the ponies? Or, maybe there’s a big race coming up that you want to figure out how to make an intelligent bet on rather than just slamming down money wildly like a confused degenerate? Wherever you fall within these categories (or in your own special category we didn’t mention), we’ve got just what you’re looking for.
*Come Bet Strategy Craps
*Converted Come Bet Strategy
Bet $15 on the Don’t Come. Bet $1 on the 11 and $1 on the 12. If the 2,3,or 12 hit next bet is same bet. Keep making $15 Don’t Come bets with the $1 11 and $1 12 hedge. If an existing Don’t Come bet is taken off then increase the Don’t Come bet size by $5. Increase for every lost Don’t Come bet. Your goal is to have 1 Don’t Pass bet with 3,4. Once a point is established, players will have access to this bet and can place chips on the don’t come bar on the table layout. The rules are exactly the same as the don’t pass line. The player wins if the shooter throws a 2, 3 or 12 and losses when the dice lands on 7 or 11.
In the coming sections, our team of experts is going to share their favorite and most effective horse racing strategy tips. These are not the worthless tips you’d get from the sketchy guy who spends 24 hours a day at the horse track who clearly hasn’t picked a winner in years. No, these are from the industry insiders who know what they’re doing.
These tips can save your life! Okay, we’re exaggerating; they probably aren’t going to save your life. But, they can save your bankroll’s life and put you on a track towards being a big-time horse racing betting winner. Who isn’t excited to secure a stable profit? Yes, that’s a horse pun. You are welcome.
In all seriousness, though, let’s get to the tips. Everyone has to learn to be a successful horse bettor; no one is barn with it. Okay, we’ll stop. Let’s get onto the tips!
We have taken the time to find you the very best for real money play. Play mobile online poker apps anywhere and at any timer. PurePlay Poker offers games that are compatible with all types of mobile. Mobile poker sites for us players.Don’t Get Hung Up on Tips at the Track
Before we go any further, we need to clear something up. In the horse racing world, you are going to run into a lot of people (especially at the track) who claim to be experts betting on the horses. They’ll claim to have insider tips or knowledge of a completely sure thing. Here’s the spoiler. There is absolutely no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing unless someone is cheating.
This means that fella at the track is probably just a degenerate gambler blowing smoke up your tailpipe. If they were really geniuses and had the ability to pick “sure things,” do you think they would be hanging out at the track all day with the common folk? Probably not! They’d probably have paid servants betting for them while they sat in an air conditioned owner’s box sipping on mint juleps. They wouldn’t be drinking a bud light with the same clothes on from yesterday and a weird aroma cloud following them around.
We’re not trying to be mean to the people at the track that love to bet on horses. What we’re saying, though, is when they tell you about a sure thing, they are doing you a disservice. You can’t get hung up on these tips even if they happen to pick a winner once in a while. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. It’s fine to listen to their tips, but don’t get so hung up on them that you get away from the strategies we’re going to give you in the coming sections. Fact and statistics will always win out against gut feeling in the long run. If you don’t believe us, you’ll eventually learn that lesson the hard way. Jockey Experience is Important
Horse racing is way different than betting on dogs for really one main reason. There is a person on top of the horse directing it around the track. For some reason, a lot of novice horse racing bettors like to put all their weight into researching the horse and forget that the jockey in the driver’s seat is extremely important.
There are a few things that you want to look for when you’re researching a jockey. First, you want to look at their history. Are they a winning jockey? Have they been winning recently? Are they staying in shape (some added weight from a lack of discipline will make a difference)? Have they been active lately or are they coming off a break?
Second, you want to look at their specific experience with the actual horse they are on and the track they are racing. Have you ever driven a new car or someone else’s car for the first time? It probably took you a little while to get used to everything even though it’s still just driving a car. This is the same with jockeys and horses. If the jockey has never ridden that particular horse in race conditions, there might be some issues with the two synching up together. While you shouldn’t preclude a horse just because it’s their first race with a new jockey, you should take it into account.
The jockey’s experience on a track is probably the most important part of this equation. Yes, all tracks are ovals and have dirt on them. But, as will talk about more later, they are not the same. An experienced jockey who has run at a particular track a lot is going to know the ins and outs of the track. They’re going to know the good sections of track, the sections to avoid, and they’re going to know when and where to push the horses to get maximum effort.
So, what’s the bottom line? Make sure you research the jockeys. Look at their personal record and then their record and experience with the horse they are on and the track they are racing at. Create a Mathematical Equation
We’re about to take you on a trip down math lane, so if you are someone who doesn’t like math, you can go ahead and skip to the next section. But, if you’re curious how the stats nerds that are crushing horse racing betting are doing it, grab a seat because we’re going to get into it.
Did you know that the odds the racebook put out on each horse not only tell you how much you stand to win, but they also tell you the percentage chance they think each horse has to win the race? Let’s say that you see a horse is 7/2 to win a race. This not only tells you that you will get $7 for every $2 you bet, but it also tells you that the racebook thinks the horse is 22.22% to win the race.
Understanding this is important to understand where we are going in this section. How do we find out the percentage chance the racebook thinks each horse will win? And, why is this important and how do we use it? Well, let’s answer these questions one at a time.
First, the way you convert this is by using an implied probability calculator. You put the odds in, click calculate, and the calculator will spit out the implied probability. This is a fancy phrase for the percentage chance the book thinks the horse will win. Basically, 7/2 “implies” that the “probability” of the horse winning is 22.22%.
Pretty neat, yea? Well, now let’s talk about why this is important to us. You have to remember that racebooks pay you out based on the likelihood of your bet winning. If a horse is more likely to win a race (the favorite), you’re not going to get paid out as much because that’s pretty likely to happen more often. If the horse is less likely to win a race (an underdog), you’re going to get paid out better because this should happen less likely. Basically, you’re getting paid a premium on your money for picking a horse that is less likely to win.
How do the racebooks know the percentage chance or likelihood of a horse winning a race? They don’t. They have to make an educated guess which is why it’s not called the probability but just the implied probability. When they set their lines, they are making a guess on the likelihood of each horse winning. Are they always right? Not a chance. When you can find situations where they are wrong and therefore paying out incorrectly, you’ve found value and potentially a great horse to bet on.
You’re looking for a horse that you think is MORE likely to win the race than the racebook thinks they are. When you find this, it means you will be winning your bet more often, but you’ll still be getting paid that premium because the racebook incorrectly thought they were going to win less often.
Let’s look at an example to drive this point home and then we’ll talk about how you can exploit it to make money at the track.
Let’s say that the horse Lucky Lucy is 4/1 to win on an upcoming race. You put this into your implied probability calculator, and you see that this means Lucky Lucy is going to win the race 20% of the time (1 out of 5 races). You also know that 4/1 pays out on a $10 bet, $40 in profit. So, let’s see what happens if you were able to bet this race 10 times and the racebook was right. They said that Lucky Lucy would win 20% of the time, so let’s see what happens to your profit if the horse wins 2 out of the 10 races (20%).Race #Horse BetAmount BetOddsOutcomeProfit/Loss1Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$402Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)3Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)4Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)5Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)6Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$407Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)8Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)9Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)10Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)
In this example, the racebook was right on the money as Lucky Lucy won 20% of the races. Let’s add up your profit. The total profit comes out to $0. You didn’t win any money or lose any money.
But, what happens if the racebook is wrong? Remember that earlier we said we were looking for opportunities where we thought a horse was going to win more often than the racebook did. That way we could win our bet more often, but still, collect that premium. Let’s say that you actually think Lucky Lucy is 30% likely to win the race. You think that out of 10 races, she’s going to win 3 races. But, the racebook still thinks it’s 20% so that is the rate you will be getting paid out. Here’s what that will look like. Race #Horse BetAmount BetOddsOutcomeProfit/Loss1Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$402Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)3Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)4Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)5Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$406Lucky Lucy$104/1Win$407Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)8Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)9Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)10Lucky Lucy$104/1Loss(-$10)
Now let’s add up your profit. You’ve now made $50 because you found a mistake in the line being offered by the racebook. This is the key to winning at horse racing betting.Yes, you won’t be able to bet the exact same race over and over again. But, if you are constantly placing bets where the racebook has the odds wrong, you will turn a profit in the long run. This is not only the key to winning at betting on horses, but it’s the key to winning at betting on any sport. This is called finding value. If you can master spotting and exploiting these opportunities, you are going to be a very wealthy man or woman.
Alright, so you understand what you’re looking for when picking out a horse to bet. But, where do we get these percentages from? Well, let’s look at what we need first. We need to know the implied probability from the racebook, and we need to know the percentage chance we think the horse is going to win. The implied probability comes from converting the odds they put out. We’ve got that down with our implied probability calculator.
As per the percentage chance, we think the horse is going to win? Well, there are two ways to go about this. The first is by straight eye-balling it. You have to predict the percentage chance you think the horse is going to win the race. While this might be tough if you look at the race as a single race, it might be easier if you look at it as 100 different races.
Ask yourself, if this race was run 100 times, how many times would this horse win? Whatever number you come up with is the percentage chance you think the horse will win. Think Lucky Lucy will win 30 times out of 100 races? That’s 30%. Think Lucky Lucy will win 25 times? That’s 25%.
But, what if you want to take a more refined approach to the problem? Well, you can do this too by creating a formula. We’re going to look at a very simplified example to show you what we mean. You can take this simplified example and use it to build your own formula. If you can develop a winning formula, you can just print money on races.
Let’s say there is an upcoming horse race with only five horses in it (to keep things simpler). These are the five horses:
*Lucky Lucy
*Barrelin’ Bobby
*Too Good to Lose
*Shoot Where’s My Ladder?
*Commas, Are, Life,
The first thing you need to do is figure out the criteria that you think is important to research when determining the likelihood of a horse winning a race. You can have as many or as few criteria as you want. It will be up to you to build your winning formula. We can tell you that typically these formulas have a lot of different variables involved and not just a few. But, for today, we’re going to pretend that you decide there are only three criteria you think are important:
*The jockey experience level = Jockey
*The horse’s sprint speed = Speed
*The horse’s age (you think younger is better) = Age
The next thing you need to do is assign a point value for each horse in each category. Typically, we like to do this on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best), but you can do this on a scale of 1-100 if you want. It’s completely up to you. HorseJockeySpeedAgeLucky Lucy859Barrelin’ Bobby375Too Good to Lose562Shoot Where’s My Ladder?749Commas, Are, Life,828
Just to make sure you see what we’re doing here, let’s look at a couple of the horses. You’re saying here that Lucky Lucy has a very experienced jockey, middle of the pack speed, and a big advantage because the horse is young. You’re saying that Barrelin’ Bobby has a weak jockey, pretty good speed, and is in the middle of the pack regarding age.
The next thing you need to do is assign how important you think each criterion is. The best way to do this is to split all the characteristics up out of 100%. For example, let’s say that you think speed is the most important factor, jockey is the second most important, and then age is just a small factor. Out of 100, you might say that speed is 50% of the equation, jockey is 40% of the equation, and the horse’s age is only 10% of the equation.
You then take those numbers, and you build an equation to calculate your value on each horse.
*Value = (50% * Speed) + (40% * Jockey) + (10% * Age)
What we do now is we plug in each horse’s numbers into the equation. Remember, you’ll want to multiply everything within the parenthesis first and then add them together. Also, you can convert percentages to decimals by moving the decimal two places to the left. So, 50% is actually the same as .5. 40% is the same as .4, and 10% is the same as .1.
*Lucky Lucy = (50% * 5) + (40% * 8) + (10% * 9)
*Lucky Lucy = (0.5* 5) + (0.4 * 8) + (0.1 * 9)
*Lucky Lucy = (2.5) + (3.2) + (0.9)
*Lucky Lucy = 6.6
Do this for all of the horses, and you get the following numbers: Play keno online australia.
*Lucky Lucy = 6.6
*Barrelin’ Bobby = 5.2
*Too Good to Lose = 5.2
*Shoot Where’s My Ladder? = 5.7
*Commas, Are, Life, = 5
Now, you need to do one last step to convert these into percentages. You have to divide each number by the total value points that you awarded. So, we start by adding up all the points like this.
*6.6 + 5.2 + 5.2 + 5.7 + 5 = 27.7
Then you divide each of the value numbers by this total number and multiply it by 100. This will give you the percentage chance your formula thinks each horse will win the race. For Lucky Lucy, we would take 6.6/27.7 which gives us. 0.2382. We multiply that by 100, and we get 23.82%. We think that Lucky Lucy has a 23.82% chance of winning the race. When we do this with every horse, here is what we get.
*Lucky Lucy = 23.82%
*Barrelin’ Bobby = 18.77%
*Too Good to Lose = 18.77%
*Shoot Where’s My Ladder? = 20.57%
*Commas, Are, Life, = 18.05%
Notice, if you add up all of these percentages it comes out to 100%. (If it’s off by a few hundredths, it’s because we rounded our numbers down to two decimal points).
So, now you have everything you need to look for value. Take the percentages you think the horse has to win and compare them with the implied probabilities you got from the racebook. If your percentage is higher than the racebooks, then you’ve most likely found a good bet assuming you are correct. The more bets that you make where you are correct, the more money you are going to make in the long run.
Now, in the real world, your formula is not going to only have a couple of criteria. Most likely, you’ll have 10+ different things that you’re giving an assigned value to. Everything still works the same, though. Is your first formula going to be a winner? Probably not. Unless you’re some wizard, you are probably going to have to continually update and change your formula. You may even want to try out multiple formulas at once to see which one is a winner. You don’t necessarily have to bet to test your formula, though. If you have access to historical data, you can always test your formula over past races.
Keep adding and taking out different criteria, and keep tweaking the importance level you place on each. Also, keep tweaking how you go about assigning value for each horse. It’s a lot of moving parts, but if you can come up with a winning formula, you’ll literally be able to print money at every race track on the planet. This is the golden ticket that every horse racing bettor chases. Check the Horse’s History
We feel like we should take a couple of deep breaths coming off of that math intensive section. Inhale…exhale. Alright, now we want to start talking about some other tips and strategies that you can use to pick winners. If you aren’t feeling the math stuff, these next tips are going to help you out a lot. If you are feeling the math stuff, you can use these tips to help you decide on your criteria and how you assign your values. Basically, the rest of this guide is going to be awesome for everyone.
What we want to talk about now is checking the horse’s history. You need to do research on the actual horse you are betting on. What exactly are you looking for? Well, there’s a lot you can look at. The first and most obvious is the horse’s experience and record. Have they raced at this track before? Have they won here before? How have they done in their past few races?
Then, you’ll want to look at the condition of the horse. Have they been overworked lately or given adequate rest? Have they raced recently or has it been a little long since they were on the track racing competitively? Has the horse ever been injured? Is the horse healthy?You want to look at the horse’s style. No, we aren’t talking about what sort of fall fashions they life to wear. We mean what kind of a runner are they. Do they like to sprint off the line and tend to fall off late? Do they wait until the end to hit their full stride? Are they
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